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-   -   Is Trump really a serious contender for the Republican nomination? (http://www.sonicyouth.com/gossip/showthread.php?t=113183)

The Soup Nazi 09.07.2016 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
and speaking of great pieces, and elections having consequences, here's paul krugman from earlier this year:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/04/op...nces.html?_r=0


And here's Paul Krugman from a coupla days ago. :)

Quote:

Hillary Clinton Gets Gored

Americans of a certain age who follow politics and policy closely still have vivid memories of the 2000 election — bad memories, and not just because the man who lost the popular vote somehow ended up in office. For the campaign leading up to that end game was nightmarish too.

You see, one candidate, George W. Bush, was dishonest in a way that was unprecedented in U.S. politics. Most notably, he proposed big tax cuts for the rich while insisting, in raw denial of arithmetic, that they were targeted for the middle class. These campaign lies presaged what would happen during his administration — an administration that, let us not forget, took America to war on false pretenses.

Yet throughout the campaign most media coverage gave the impression that Mr. Bush was a bluff, straightforward guy, while portraying Al Gore — whose policy proposals added up, and whose critiques of the Bush plan were completely accurate — as slippery and dishonest. Mr. Gore’s mendacity was supposedly demonstrated by trivial anecdotes, none significant, some of them simply false. No, he never claimed to have invented the internet. But the image stuck.

And right now I and many others have the sick, sinking feeling that it’s happening again.

True, there aren’t many efforts to pretend that Donald Trump is a paragon of honesty. But it’s hard to escape the impression that he’s being graded on a curve. If he manages to read from a TelePrompter without going off script, he’s being presidential. If he seems to suggest that he wouldn’t round up all 11 million undocumented immigrants right away, he’s moving into the mainstream. And many of his multiple scandals, like what appear to be clear payoffs to state attorneys general to back off investigating Trump University, get remarkably little attention.

Meanwhile, we have the presumption that anything Hillary Clinton does must be corrupt, most spectacularly illustrated by the increasingly bizarre coverage of the Clinton Foundation.

Step back for a moment, and think about what that foundation is about. When Bill Clinton left office, he was a popular, globally respected figure. What should he have done with that reputation? Raising large sums for a charity that saves the lives of poor children sounds like a pretty reasonable, virtuous course of action. And the Clinton Foundation is, by all accounts, a big force for good in the world. For example, Charity Watch, an independent watchdog, gives it an “A” rating — better than the American Red Cross.

Now, any operation that raises and spends billions of dollars creates the potential for conflicts of interest. You could imagine the Clintons using the foundation as a slush fund to reward their friends, or, alternatively, Mrs. Clinton using her positions in public office to reward donors. So it was right and appropriate to investigate the foundation’s operations to see if there were any improper quid pro quos. As reporters like to say, the sheer size of the foundation “raises questions.”

But nobody seems willing to accept the answers to those questions, which are, very clearly, “no.”

Consider the big Associated Press report suggesting that Mrs. Clinton’s meetings with foundation donors while secretary of state indicate “her possible ethics challenges if elected president.” Given the tone of the report, you might have expected to read about meetings with, say, brutal foreign dictators or corporate fat cats facing indictment, followed by questionable actions on their behalf.

But the prime example The A.P. actually offered was of Mrs. Clinton meeting with Muhammad Yunus, a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize who also happens to be a longtime personal friend. If that was the best the investigation could come up with, there was nothing there.

So I would urge journalists to ask whether they are reporting facts or simply engaging in innuendo, and urge the public to read with a critical eye. If reports about a candidate talk about how something “raises questions,” creates “shadows,” or anything similar, be aware that these are all too often weasel words used to create the impression of wrongdoing out of thin air.

And here’s a pro tip: the best ways to judge a candidate’s character are to look at what he or she has actually done, and what policies he or she is proposing. Mr. Trump’s record of bilking students, stiffing contractors and more is a good indicator of how he’d act as president; Mrs. Clinton’s speaking style and body language aren’t. George W. Bush’s policy lies gave me a much better handle on who he was than all the up-close-and-personal reporting of 2000, and the contrast between Mr. Trump’s policy incoherence and Mrs. Clinton’s carefulness speaks volumes today.

In other words, focus on the facts. America and the world can’t afford another election tipped by innuendo.

ilduclo 09.07.2016 05:18 PM

yeah, the coverage of the Bondi/Trump illegal bribery scandal is pretty poor. Not sure why they're so anti-Clinton.

d.sound 09.07.2016 06:21 PM

never thought i would agree with paul krugman

d.sound 09.08.2016 09:20 AM

anyone watch the town hall last night? i'm a little nervous that hill-dawg's questions had her on the defensive about honesty and legality, while trump's questions seemed kind of soft. he seemed looser.

i guess i'm glad i don't live in a 3rd world dictatorship?

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d.sound
i guess i'm glad i don't live in a 3rd world dictatorship?

rejoice

believe me--i used to

evollove 09.08.2016 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d.sound
anyone watch the town hall last night?


Yeah. Trump was a little incoherent. I might not vote for him.

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 10:22 AM

i watched the highlights this morning and what jumped at me the most is that trump admires the control that putin has over russia--yikes! if that's trump's idea of a good leader, he should self-deport to a banana republic.

ilduclo 09.08.2016 11:07 AM

he wants to increase military fucking spending, what a retard.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilduclo
he wants to increase military fucking spending, what a retard.

that is republican talking point numero uno

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by evollove
Yeah. Trump was a little incoherent. I might not vote for him.

i wanted to rep and thank you for the lols

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 03:12 PM

OH MAN THAT GARY JOHNSON SHIT THIS MORNING WAS SHEER COMEDY GOLD! That Woody Woodpecker-looking motherfucker!

 


 


 


 

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 03:13 PM

 


 


 


 

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 03:14 PM

 


 


 


 

greenlight 09.08.2016 03:36 PM

so who would you rather have "commander-in-chief"? it is all a mind game. there must be a war, there is always war. military complex has to run. it must be a great business, while veterans going through some tough shit. it is madness anyway.

 
 



#edit#
...........................

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greenlight
so who would you rather have "commander-in-chief"? it is all a mind game. there must be a war, there is always war. military complex has to run. it must be a great business, while veterans going through some tough shit. it is madness anyway.


Yes — The military-industrial-congress complex keeps running, war isn't meant to be won but perpetuated, etc.

NO
— That context doesn't mean it's the same whether you have Hillary Clinton or Drumpf as commander in chief; that's a cynic equivalency and a balance-for-balance's-sake fallacy. If anything, given what you mention, who is elected matters even more.

d.sound 09.08.2016 03:59 PM

clinton will certainly continue the middle east war. drones, limited combat.

but what in the hell would trump do? i have no idea. he'd broker a deal with russia in syria. he'd probably start a war with germany because angela merkel isn't a "10". his statements that he thinks dictatorships are the way to run a country, that nuclear war is a reasonable action... he scares the shit out of me.

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greenlight
so who would you rather have "commander-in-chief"? it is all a mind game. there must be a war, there is always war. military complex has to run. it must be a great business, while veterans going through some tough shit. it is madness..

right, but just because "it's madness" it doesn't mean that we have to put a lunatic in charge of the asylum

if it's a mind game, i want a competent, knowledgeable, experienced, SANE woman in charge

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d.sound
anyone watch the town hall last night? i'm a little nervous that hill-dawg's questions had her on the defensive about honesty and legality, while trump's questions seemed kind of soft. he seemed looser.

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
i watched the highlights this morning and what jumped at me the most is that trump admires the control that putin has over russia--yikes! if that's trump's idea of a good leader, he should self-deport to a banana republic.



The Washington Post's Daily 202 has a very good, extensive analysis of last night's bullcrap. Fuck Matt Lauer, by the way.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d.sound
clinton will certainly continue the middle east war. drones, limited combat.

but what in the hell would trump do? i have no idea. he'd broker a deal with russia in syria. he'd probably start a war with germany because angela merkel isn't a "10". his statements that he thinks dictatorships are the way to run a country, that nuclear war is a reasonable action... he scares the shit out of me.


where did Trump actually say anything about nuclear war?

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
where did Trump actually say anything about nuclear war?


https://thinkprogress.org/9-terrifyi...32a#.idgxekiu5

You can say he was talking about deterrence, but I think that's giving him too much goddamn credit.

ilduclo 09.08.2016 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
The Washington Post's Daily 202 has a very good, extensive analysis of last night's bullcrap. Fuck Matt Lauer, by the way.



thanks, TSN, cross posted this

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 06:59 PM

whoa... wow.. (in regards to that Gary Johnson thing)

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
https://thinkprogress.org/9-terrifyi...32a#.idgxekiu5

You can say he was talking about deterrence, but I think that's giving him too much goddamn credit.


haha wow that was a great read. Trump reads much more incoherently than he sounds when listening to him. wow... imagine reading this kind of dribbling nonsensical gibberish like everyday in the newspaper?

and any one STILL thinks this guys even has a small chance of becoming president???
 

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
 


 


 


 


whoa... wow.. (in regards to that Gary Johnson thing. when i saw this thread at work earlier i thought it wasn't real until i caught it in the news when i got home

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
and any one STILL thinks this guys even has a small chance of becoming president???


Yes, because people are egregiously stupid. What can I tell ya.

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
whoa... wow.. (in regards to that Gary Johnson thing. when i saw this thread at work earlier i thought it wasn't real until i caught it in the news when i got home


#WhatIsAleppo is quite trendy at the moment!

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
#WhatIsAleppo is quite trendy at the moment!

hahahaaaaaa is it a philosophical question now?

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
Yes, because people are egregiously stupid. What can I tell ya.

i don't mean his supporters, i mean anyone else! look at Obama face, he couldn't even keep a straight face during his remarks about Trump.. i laughed from deep in my gut when i just saw Barry's speech about Matt Lauer bitching out just now...

 

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by President Barry Obama
I think the most important thing for the public and the press is to just listen what he says and follow up, and ask questions about what appear to be either contradictory or uninformed or outright bad ideas. There is this process that seems to take place over the course of the election season, where somehow, behavior, that in normal times we would consider completely unacceptable and outrageous, becomes normalized. People start thinking that we should be grading on a curve.


Barry had such an incredulous look on his face that it even looked like he rolled his eyes just after he said "outright bad.." as if you could almost see him visualizing some Trumpisms

The Soup Nazi 09.08.2016 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
i don't mean his supporters, i mean anyone else! look at Obama face, he couldn't even keep a straight face during his remarks about Trump...


Ever since he went into politics with the birtherism horseshit the assclown's been laughable. Hasn't stopped him from being a swing state or two away from the presidency. I won't underestimate this fuckface's chances until I can look at the sky the night of November 8 without seeing the Four Horsemen riding towards us.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi
Ever since he went into politics with the birtherism horseshit the assclown's been laughable. Hasn't stopped him from being a swing state or two away from the presidency. I won't underestimate this fuckface's chances until I can look at the sky the night of November 8 without seeing the Four Horsemen riding towards us.

hahaha trump is not a swing state away from shit. indeed he doesn't even project to having half the electoral college. i will repeat it again, if Mitt Romney couldn't win a national election which was very close Trump will get embarrassed. everyone who keeps saying he stands any kind of chance are just being superstitious or fearmongering.. yeah yeah sure sure que the vote this or its not in until its in blah blah woof woof come on................. guy isn't going to win and it doesn't take Biff's Almanac to confirm

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
hahaha trump is not a swing state away from shit. indeed he doesn't even project to having half the electoral college. i will repeat it again, if Mitt Romney couldn't win a national election which was very close Trump will get embarrassed. everyone who keeps saying he stands any kind of chance are just being superstitious or fearmongering.. yeah yeah sure sure que the vote this or its not in until its in blah blah woof woof come on................. guy isn't going to win and it doesn't take Biff's Almanac to confirm

bush wasn't gonna win and did--with the help of crooked florida officials and the supreme court, but he did

then bush won again based on jingoism and propaganda and a war mindset and the swiftboating of kerry--before the swiftboater bullshit, kerry was ready to dethrone dubya

romney got hanged by his 47% moocher comments-- can't say what would have happened without that recording because the anti-obamas were mobilized and the tea party was still on fire and the 2008 kids were burned out on reality

and as krugman says, hillary is in danger of getting gored

a couple more idiots like lauer and it can really happen

plus trump has support from the fsb. the chinese like him too and who knows what theyre up to. meanwhile the fbi/cia/nsa can't take sides in the election.

it ain't over till it's over.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
bush wasn't gonna win and did--with the help of crooked florida officials and the supreme court, but he did

then bush won again based on jingoism and propaganda and a war mindset and the swiftboating of kerry--before the swiftboater bullshit, kerry was ready to dethrone dubya

romney got hanged by his 47% moocher comments-- can't say what would have happened without that recording because the anti-obamas were mobilized and the tea party was still on fire

and as krugman says, hillary is in danger of getting gored

a couple more idiots like lauer and it can really happen

plus trump has support from the fsb. the chinese like him too and who knows what theyre up to. meanwhile the fbi/cia/nsa can't take sides in the election.

it ain't over till it's over.


Bush was closer to Gore through out the campaign than Trump has ever been, Bush was less divisive in his rhetoric indeed it was the myth of the compassionate conservative. Bush was electable at a national level. Trump? hagahahaaa.. again some of y'all are being too superstitious

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
Bush was closer to Gore through out the campaign than Trump has ever been, Bush was less divisive in his rhetoric indeed it was the myth of the compassionate conservative. Bush was electable at a national level. Trump? hagahahaaa.. again some of y'all are being too superstitious

whatever, i don't give a shit. not resting till all the votes are counted.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.08.2016 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by !@#$%!
whatever, i don't give a shit. not resting till all the votes are counted.

you're stressing out over nothing. i mean seriously. everyone afraid of Trumo needs to just take a breath, take a moment, and regain your sense of humor about things. the guy is a clown. just laugh at the clown.

if y'all wanna vote for Overlord Hillary do it. if y'all want others to vote for her tell them about her. BUT don't waste your time making it about Trump. it gives the asshole more credibility and legitimacy than he is worth

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
you're stressing out over nothing. i mean seriously. everyone afraid of Trumo needs to just take a breath, take a moment, and regain your sense of humor about things. the guy is a clown. just laugh at the clown.

if y'all wanna vote for Overlord Hillary do it. if y'all want others to vote for her tell them about her. BUT don't waste your time making it about Trump. it gives the asshole more credibility and legitimacy than he is worth

it's basic math-- you multiply the chances by the impact of those chances to calculate the real risk

trump's chances may be lower, but the clusterfuck potential is astronomical, hence the risk is nothing to dismiss

and black swans are a thing

!@#$%! 09.08.2016 08:47 PM

a) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_matrix

see the matrix: unlikely (& above) x catastrophic = extreme risk

b) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

extra bonus: the russkies
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.61a6a7969f4e

The Soup Nazi 09.09.2016 07:22 PM

From The Washington Post:

Quote:

The Hillary Clinton email story is out of control
The attention paid to it has far surpassed the boundaries of the facts.
By the Editorial Board

JUDGING BY the amount of time NBC’s Matt Lauer spent pressing Hillary Clinton on her emails during Wednesday’s national security presidential forum, one would think that her homebrew server was one of the most important issues facing the country this election. It is not. There are a thousand other substantive issues — from China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea to National Security Agency intelligence-gathering to military spending — that would have revealed more about what the candidates know and how they would govern. Instead, these did not even get mentioned in the first of 5˝ precious prime-time hours the two candidates will share before Election Day, while emails took up a third of Ms. Clinton’s time.

Sadly, Mr. Lauer’s widely panned handling of the candidate forum was not an aberration. Judging by polls showing that voters trust Donald Trump more than Ms. Clinton, as well as other evidence, it reflects a common shorthand for this election articulated by NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick last week: “You have Donald Trump, who’s openly racist,” he said. Then, of Ms. Clinton: “I mean, we have a presidential candidate who’s deleted emails and done things illegally and is a presidential candidate. That doesn’t make sense to me, because if that was any other person, you’d be in prison.”

In fact, Ms. Clinton’s emails have endured much more scrutiny than an ordinary person’s would have, and the criminal case against her was so thin that charging her would have been to treat her very differently. Ironically, even as the email issue consumed so much precious airtime, several pieces of news reported Wednesday should have taken some steam out of the story. First is a memo FBI Director James B. Comey sent to his staff explaining that the decision not to recommend charging Ms. Clinton was “not a cliff-hanger” and that people “chest-beating” and second-guessing the FBI do not know what they are talking about. Anyone who claims that Ms. Clinton should be in prison accuses, without evidence, the FBI of corruption or flagrant incompetence.

Second is the emergence of an email exchange between Ms. Clinton and former secretary of state Colin Powell in which he explained that he used a private computer and bypassed State Department servers while he ran the agency, even when communicating with foreign leaders and top officials. Mr. Powell attempted last month to distance himself from Ms. Clinton’s practices, which is one of the many factors that made the email story look worse. Now, it seems, Mr. Powell engaged in similar behavior.

Last is a finding that 30 Benghazi-related emails that were recovered during the FBI email investigation and recently attracted big headlines had nothing significant in them. Only one, in fact, was previously undisclosed, and it contained nothing but a compliment from a diplomat. But the damage of the “30 deleted Benghazi emails” story has already been done.

Ms. Clinton is hardly blameless. She treated the public’s interest in sound record-keeping cavalierly. A small amount of classified material also moved across her private server. But it was not obviously marked as such, and there is still no evidence that national security was harmed. Ms. Clinton has also admitted that using the personal server was a mistake. The story has vastly exceeded the boundaries of the facts.

Imagine how history would judge today’s Americans if, looking back at this election, the record showed that voters empowered a dangerous man because of . . . a minor email scandal. There is no equivalence between Ms. Clinton’s wrongs and Mr. Trump’s manifest unfitness for office.

SuchFriendsAreDangerous 09.09.2016 08:20 PM

had this conversation with my friend last nite in between watching NFL opening night. i told him if Hillary got under 5% gap in popular vote i would be shocked, and i wouldn't be shocked if she carried 60% of the vote which would be virtually unprecedented in the modern era..

he showed me a poll that projected Hillary at 43% and Trump at 41%.. 2% of popular vote would be over a million and half people.. that is a sure victory.

remember all the FeelTheBern people hvent accepted reality they will show up for Democrats in November in meantime they are pouting as they flirt with other third party candidates. at the worst they probably just won't bote so if we just go by the numbers in the primaries (which is a fair indicator because primary voters are always the most active) Overlord Hillary has already been coronated

The Soup Nazi 09.09.2016 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuchFriendsAreDangerous
had this conversation with my friend last nite in between watching NFL opening night. i told him if Hillary got under 5% gap in popular vote i would be shocked, and i wouldn't be shocked if she carried 60% of the vote which would be virtually unprecedented in the modern era..

he showed me a poll that projected Hillary at 43% and Trump at 41%.. 2% of popular vote would be over a million and half people.. that is a sure victory.

remember all the FeelTheBern people hvent accepted reality they will show up for Democrats in November in meantime they are pouting as they flirt with other third party candidates. at the worst they probably just won't bote so if we just go by the numbers in the primaries (which is a fair indicator because primary voters are always the most active) Overlord Hillary has already been coronated


Tell you what: If you're right, I'll send you a rare, exclusive Grateful Dead collection. If you're wrong, I will mail you a TURD. You won't know the package contains an actual turd, since I will label it as something attractive to you, like "Unreleased Sonic Nurse Sessions" or something.


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