Hüskers for Harris!

Inspired design choice

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The political rage of left-behind regions
What former industrial heartlands have in common

By Paul Krugman

There were local elections in several German states a few days ago, and the results — a strong showing by Alternative for Germany or AfD, a right-wing extremist party — were shocking but not surprising. Shocking because, given their history, Germans more than anyone else should fear the rise of anti-democratic right-wing forces. Not surprising because the AfD has been rising for a while, especially in the former East Germany, where the elections were held.

I am not any kind of an expert on Germany, and I won’t speculate about what these results mean for the Bundesrepublik’s future. What I can say as an American is that despite the vast differences in our nations’ modern histories, the rise of Germany’s modern far right — and especially its concentration of support in economically depressed areas — looks remarkably familiar.

Put it this way: In some important respects Thuringia, the German state where the AfD won more votes than any other party, resembles West Virginia. Like West Virginia, it’s a place the 21st-century economy seems to have left behind, whose population is in decline, with younger people in particular leaving for opportunities elsewhere. And West Virginia strongly supports Donald Trump and his party, whose doctrines bear considerable resemblance to those of the AfD.

After Donald Trump won the 2016 election, there was a lot of facile talk about voters driven by economic anxiety. Voters’ real motivations are more complex than that.

But MAGA’s rise does seem connected to the economic decline of much of rural and small-town America. This decline has happened in many parts of the country, including, for example, much of upstate New York, but it is concentrated in what Benjamin Austin, Edward Glaeser and Lawrence Summers have called the “eastern heartland.” In what follows I’ll focus on numbers for West Virginia, which is arguably the heart of that heartland, and epitomizes both the economic and political problems of left-behind regions.

So what stands out when you compare West Virginia with other parts of America is the number of men not working. I say “men” because even now, despite the rise in the percentage of women in the paid labor force since 1970, our expectation that adults of working age will, in fact, have jobs is stronger for men than for women.

Here’s a comparison between West Virginia and New Jersey. Why New Jersey? I’ll explain in a moment. The chart shows the percentage of adults ages 20 to 64 who didn’t have jobs in 2019 (before the pandemic):


American Community Survey

Adults of both sexes were much more likely not to be working in West Virginia, although the gap was larger for men (67 versus 43 percent).

Why is not working a problem? Obviously, it means you aren’t earning wages, but it goes deeper than that. Jobs are a source of dignity, a sense of self-worth; people who aren’t working when they feel they should be — a problem that, like it or not, is even now bigger for men than women — feel shame, which all too easily turns into anger, a desire to blame someone else and lash out.

So the lack of jobs for men helps extremist political movements that appeal to angry men. In Germany, the AfD has much stronger support among men than women. Polls show a large advantage for Kamala Harris among women in the United States, while Trump leads among men. Places where there are many men without jobs are fertile ground for MAGA, which is trying to court the “manoverse.”

Why are jobs, especially for men, so hard to get in West Virginia?

Despite what you may hear from the likes of JD Vance, native-born West Virginians aren’t losing jobs to immigrants because the state hardly has any immigrants — only 1.8 percent of the population is foreign-born, the lowest in the nation, while the corresponding number for New Jersey is 23.5 percent, close to the top.

The parallel between economic and political developments in the United States and Germany also rules out the idea that the heartland is suffering because trade deficits are undermining our manufacturing sector. For while America has indeed been running trade deficits, Germany has been running huge surpluses — yet is experiencing similar discontent and anger:


World Bank

So what’s the matter with the heartland? The most likely story is that the 21st-century economy is driven by knowledge-intensive industries that flourish in metropolitan areas with highly educated work forces. This has led to a self-reinforcing process in which jobs migrate to places with lots of college graduates, and college graduates migrate to the same places, leaving less-educated places like West Virginia stranded.

Is the solution, then, for the regions that have benefited from this process to provide aid to those on the losing end? The answer, in America at least, is that they actually do in effect provide such aid, although until recently it was the result of aid to individuals rather than reflecting a deliberate “place-based” policy.

Here’s what I mean: The federal government provides a lot of support to U.S. citizens via Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid; even poor states receive the full benefit of these programs. But poor states pay relatively little in federal taxes, which support these programs. So the result is huge implicit aid to lower-income states. Here, for 2022, are federal spending and tax receipts from West Virginia (excluding Covid-related programs), as percentages of the state’s gross domestic product:


Rockefeller Institute, Bureau of Economic Analysis

In effect, the state received “foreign aid” from wealthier states of almost 12 percent of G.D.P., which is huge.

West Virginia also benefited immensely from the Affordable Care Act, which greatly reduced the number of its residents without health insurance:


KFF

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You might say that the federal social safety net increases people’s incomes but doesn’t create jobs. But that’s not true. Social Security supports consumer spending, which creates jobs in retail and more. Medicare and Medicaid support jobs in hospitals, doctors’ offices, and so on. West Virginia may still think of itself as a coal-mining state, but by the numbers it has long been more accurately described as a health care state, with much of its employment ultimately driven by those federal dollars:


FRED

I guess that there are some people who don’t think of employment in hospitals, or in the service sector more generally, as “real” jobs; I don’t think nurses and schoolteachers would agree.

What is true, and may partially explain political rage in left-behind regions, is that many of the jobs federal aid creates tend to be female-coded, certainly more so than coal mining — which may in turn explain why the problem of adults without jobs appears to be worse, at least in terms of its political weight, for men than for women.

That said, the Biden-Harris administration has been making a serious effort to promote manufacturing as part of its industrial policies — an effort that seems to be disproportionately helping heartland states.

The odd thing is that the politicians angry heartland voters support — Trump received more than twice as many votes in West Virginia as Joe Biden in 2020 — oppose the very programs that aid these depressed areas. Trump tried, in effect, to kill the Affordable Care Act. Not a single Republican voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which is helping to create manufacturing jobs in the heartland.

But then Adam Tooze, who does know something about German political economy, tells us that while the AfD talks a lot about “social distress” in lagging regions, this “does not translate into a platform that supports greater state spending.”

In Germany as in America, then, voters in left-behind regions are, understandably, angry — and they channel this anger into support for politicians who will make their plight worse.


Quick hits:

Will the rise of the AfD doom eastern Germany’s economy?

Clean energy investments are going mainly to red states.

Trump’s advantage on economic issues appears to be fading.

A tech-driven regional divide?

Via Bandcamp:

Six minutes of your time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf5MThSniiY

Bernie rocks.

The only answer to our suffering is communism on a large scale worldwide it's never been seen before. A few links to what Bernie said ain't going to change shit at all.

I can't wait for this election to be over and i have no idea how it's going to pan out.

i can't wait for the us population not to be so fucking right wing and ignorant that half of them will consider fascism as an option, election or no election

elections come and go but stupidity is forever

This statement is far too relatable looking in from an Austrian perspective - what with the Conservative Party fucking over much-needed social institutions, contributing a lot to the current malaise and people still voting for them in droves, worse still - voting for a Putin-loving, Covid conspiracy spreading party of Nazi-adjacent shitheads.


That said, all the best to Harris - even though her possible victory would not erase the stupidity that has already been brewing in people's heads - at least it won't flow into the policy-making echelons like it would with Cheeto.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae18nU3KMlg

That infamous shot of Pinoshit there... Even though I was very young, I can't believe I survived that horror.

To those of you in the United States: please, just rid us of TFG once and for fuckin' all.

I think Harris wins in a close one. But the Democratic party has got to come up with a better way to win elections than just hoping Trump's campaign implodes on itself; eventually the Republicans are going to come up with a far-right candidate that isn't a clown car. And none of this "compromising with the sensible centre" shit.

"British friends have asked about the pre-election American mood. Music, at least the kind I write about, creates its own bubble, so no Maga caps were spotted in the audiences. Homes we visited all had Harris/Walz signs out front; the closest we came to a glance across the divide was a huge billboard in Texas reading 'Angry? Vote Republican'. Cars coming the other way saw 'Tired of being angry? Vote Democrat'. Here’s hoping."

—Joe Boyd

I know you've factored this in, but I still have to mention it: Democrats wouldn't even need to bother (this much) if it weren't for the Electoral College. Terribly unpopular candidate :rolleyes: Hillary Clinton beat T**** by three million votes. Terribly old-timer candidate Joe Biden crushed him by seven million. Kamala will also win the popular vote, I'm sure; I just hope she wins the key ones which are worth ten times those cast in Californee and Noo-Yawk are.

compromising with the sensible center is exactly how they would win. this is a country of very materialistic people who like to buy shit above all else, not a commune of idealists willing to sacrifice themselves for a lofty cause

the united states is a very right wing country overall. it had slavery longer than all civilized countries, it segregated and then practically exterminated the indians. people in it like being told what to do much less than people in other countries. also they fucking love money more than anything pretty much. and the people who have no money love their fucking guns and their bibles instead. but money is the common denominator. people come here to make money and kill and feel it's their god given right, not to collect government welfare, hahaha. ok im only exaggerating to make a point. but americans generally pretend they prefer private charity to government programs

go too far left and you guarantee yourself out of power and rule by fascists. the nazis came to power as anticommunists. it's an old playbook. and that is how this country works in spite of all the wishful thinking in the world. yes, we have dreams. if grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle

it's not a unitary republic like france. it's a confederacy (horrible name i know) of 50 states. 50! more states than the european union has members, although the population is somewhat smaller. and the bill or rights guarantees certain protections against a tyranny of the majority. it's not a "majority rule" country. this is why they let you burn the flag, have a church of scientology, etc. especially if it makes money, lol

i am not saying this to defend the disgusting fucking repukes, who keep getting worse every year, i'm just explaining the rules of the game that is being played. which everybody wants to rig to their own advantage. as usual, losers love to blame the referee or "if only"

here's hoping we're not there come wednesday. let the radioactive ball of shit be the one left bitching and whining about "unfairness"

^ This is a conversation we'll have to have eventually, because the subject (federal country) keeps popping up and I have a different take on it. But like I said, eventually; now, I am entering Kamalamode...

My dear American friends, make the right choice today.

^ What he said.

The US Republican party is 93% "anglo/white" and 90% male.

Yeah, but when will we know who won this shit?

A detailed guide!

looks like shit already

How can this many people be so fucking stupid?

the average i.q. is 100?

I just cannot comprehend what is happening. The Psychopath is going to win.

I'm moving to fucking Scandinavia. Iceland is my first choice. Then Norway. Then Sweden.

I just cannot stand this mass dumbassery anymore.

so who is the stupid now?

come on. have you not been following the news for the past 4 months or whatever?

yes it is a fucking disgusting and extremely dangerous outcome

but beyond comprehension? no fucking way! if you comprehend but refuse to accept those are different words

where do we begin? with king lear's uncontested coronation earlier this year? his public display of senility on national tv? his slow and painful removal from the top of the ticket? the refusal to have an open primary and choose the stronger candidate? the reliance on abortion rights as the great mobilizer when prices and borders are the #1 concern? empty promises of 25k for housing that never are going to make it through congress? the inability of kamala to run away from the democratic reliance on the left in recent years?

yes there are much larger issues at stake here but voters are stupid and nearsighted, and democrats are stupid and naive, but republicans are fucking evil. and evil is winning today as it so often does in spite of comic books saying otherwise

i wanted the astronaut in the ticket. instead we got kamala and that kid's dad and borshon borshon borshon. all about mobilizing the women. the repukes gave us the dotard, vans, melon, and joe f. rogan: bros and more bros

maybe we will have a surprise upset in the morning or whatever. but even if kamala ends up squeaking by, what can democrats deliver?

You are (understandingly) handling this very badly.

Educational and Moral Decay are the main factors here. America is completely lost. Prepare for Civil War 2.

Maybe I'll post again in a year.

the civil war is over. the wingnuts won.

i have no problem comprehending the shit that we're in

we've always had "educational and moral decay"

today it won again as it often does

BECAUSE OF THE STRATEGIC INCOMPETENCE OF THE WELL-MEANING BUT DELUDED

(like wanting to fight inflation by decrying "price gouging". what kind of stupid economic theory is that?)

the repukes already locked the senate btw, regardless

every democrat who wanted manchin gone can cheer now :mad:

georgia

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well, mierda, here we go again, only now worse...

let's go

it's 8:30AM and am watching Trump's victory speech.
Think it's best to go back to bed and stay there for the next 4 years ...




Iceland is beautiful though, I'll come visit you but only in spring or summertime
In winter it's dark 24/7
I might still now a place where you can get free gasoline (true story, accidentally :D)

Sounds like my room.

oh fuck he's already bloviating? glad im missing it. i see pennsylvania already red... 3 votes away...

don't go to bed. just keep on with your life but cover your ears

it's gonna be now trump melon trump melon trump melon aaaaaaaaaall fucking day in the news. as if we didn't have enough already of the fucking oligarchs

anyway i made some money buying the dollar most of last week and today. as much as i hate the situation, i will try to make the best of it because what else can one do? (i'm actually one of those who had fun during covid... true story). ps heard also that crypto went up tonight, but i don't touch the stuff.

anyway please try to have fun and keep your sense of humor no matter what. yes, it's gonna be shit, so we have to keep our morale high in spite of/because of everything. this isn't as bad as the gulag (yet?lol), but they also have jokes there. remember navalny? he was joking until the end

--

2016 was horrible for me because it caught me by surprise, like a kick in the balls. this year, i'm wearing a cup...

It's looking like Kamala is going to get something like ten million fewer votes than Biden did in 2020, while Trump's total stays pretty similar. Similar problem to 2016.

Hats off to Trump, for only he could endorse Jimmy Saville's famous catchphrase for his campaign, and still win.

what problem is that. "women would rule the world if they didn't hate each other"? xD

look, this was a shit campaign, with the cost of living for the poors at the forefront, and no response to it except more leftism like price controls, which everyone with 2 neurons knows dont work

the usa is a center right country. culturally i mean. people are very capitalistic here. even the proletarians. get used to this as a starting point for anywhere you want to get to

for example, (almost) everyone understands that the solution to the housing problem is to allow more construction where it's needed. and overregulation prevents that. giving free money to people for buying something that is not there would just put more pressure on the limited supply we have, and increase prices further

why can't leftists understand basic supply and demand? NO FUCKING IDEA ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

...

oh here is another: there is war with russia. the west doesnt want their gas. the us is the next gas supplier. allies like japan and europe would like greater access to this gas in the long term to secure their future. what do the democrats do? put a moratorium on gas exporting facilities!!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...l-gas-exports/

this was advertised as a good thing with a stupid cartoon with an immature voicever about "smashing greed" when biden was still running! fucking morons! the timing could not have been more unfortunate

meanwhile the german economy is in the shitter due to a lot of factors including high energy prices, and their government is ready to collapse. idk wtf is going on in japan either, now, with a parliamentary shift

but no, let's talk about borshon borshon borshon. which is getting worked out at the state level already

ps - looks like a red sweep now. satan has conquered

The micro-penis vote carried the election.

2024: The year people were A-okay with voting for outright fascists. fel (fuck everyone's lives)


I was really hoping the US would buck the trend of nations going for the most batshit far-right option. It would've been badly needed on a global scale. Alas, it was not to be. People don't ever learn. Urgh.

trump musk and rogan have a lot of simps


i keep saying this, americans in general are a very right wing population

don't you remember the made-up reasons for the iraq invasion and how everyone lapped them up?

expect the worst of people and you'll never be disappointed xD

the republican party is 93% white males.

until the Great Replacement finally occurs the USA will vote for a fat white man over any woman or person of color.

We once again have a president that is functionally illiterate, a mental defective, and a RAPIST.

Good times....

That's why I said people don't ever learn. It's frustrating. And I'm not merely pointing fingers here - a third of the voting population chose to elect an authoritan party with Nazi-ties in Austria just about two months ago. The Conservative Party once again got plenty of votes too, despite having fucked over many important social institutions and rightfully having been the butt of many jokes. But I guess people never learn. The one time there is an actual upset, it is the even worse option. The world is cooked right now.


(The Conservative Party reigns with the Social Democrats, because coalitions are a thing here as long as they can reach 50% together and no one wants to work with the winners - but it's the stupidity of the voters that worries me)