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I agree with all your points and I'd roughly give it a 55-45 chance for Spain too.
If you play defensively against Spain, they will beat you by 1-0.
I didn't really mean to single out Sneijder and Xavi, it was more a kind of metaphore. In reality I think it'll be about whether Holland can disrupt the brilliant Barcelona midfield. Football is war like Rinus Michels once said.
Not sure if Van Bommel will get booked early though. He somehow always manages to give the referee the impression that he's being fouled on, while his opponent lies flat on the ground wondering what's just happened.
I used to really despise him when he was still playing in the Dutch league (for PSV Eindhoven). He's really the kind of player who's extremely unlikable for the neutral specatator, but he's oh so important for the succes of his team, kinda like Gattuso for Italy and Makelele for France back in the day.
Defensively, Capdevila seems to be their weakest link at left-back, he'll surely need assistance in dealing with Robben. Hopefully Kuyt can handle Sergio Ramos going forward.
Paul the Octopus has predicted Spain will win the final. However, he's got no record of predicting games that Germany's not involved in... plus he only ever made one wrong prediction, which was the Euro 2008 final. The future is bright, the future is orange.
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