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Old 10.25.2016, 08:44 AM   #1397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Severian
FiveThirtEight had the popular vote at something like 49 and 43. Even 50/40 is terrifying considering.

Just one site, for that half hour. Saw a few headlines about it too, but they were greatly exaggerated, using phrases like "Dead heat." Oi.
oh, i see what you're saying. yes. i mean-- 40% of the country voting for an unstable egomaniac is too much however you cut it

thing about polls is that they're probabilities not certainties and yes that aspect is a spooky one. people get too complacent and BLAM.

here's a nice article on electoral stats and probability that explains how 538 accounts for unlikely outcomes with "fat tailed" distributions, plus other fun stuff

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...hers-on-trump/

is everyone here voting early? avoid lines and suprises on election day
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