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Originally Posted by dead_battery
my predictions - mr. tangerine man loses
next to zero of the black and hispanic vote so he's fucked
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The black vote is much lower this year than average. Hispanic slightly higher, though there are a few million newly registereds planning on voting for Trump, so it may be a wash, or more likely the numbers are in Trump's favor.
Currently, there is a better than 25% chance he'll win, which might not seem like much, but it is more than ten points higher than last week! Also, again with Russian Roulette metaphor: one trigger pull out of four will kill, which isn't a cozy ratio in my mind.