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Originally Posted by MisterTrick

this is such the thing that most people never think about

the older voters ALWAYS turn out, the youth are fickle as hell and rarely show in the numbers that represent their demographic and the evidence seems to show that Sanders is bringing them out in numbers that would codify the polling numbers that support him

the early contests have not shown the level of youth turnout that one would expect if Sanders truly was bringing them out, and especially not to the level Obama did in 2008

maybe, yeah. i have not looked at those specific stats.

but i looked at some nevada entrance poll results and sanders showed a broad coalition across demographics, which others lacked.

obama at this point in 2008 had won iowa but had lost both new hampshire and nevada. of course he was more or less an unknown back then, while bernie is by now pretty famous.

i'd like to see how sanders fares in south carolina, where biden appears to be the shoo-in, and what percentage of the black vote he ends up getting, plus a breakdown of age groups. the key to the whole election for democrats is supposed to be old black women, so that vote should be an interesting bit of data to look for. i'm sure it will be dissected by statisticians and spun by everyone come sunday.

anyway, maybe i'm crazy to look at this contest with such detachment, but i really don't know what's going to happen (i was trained in science, therefore i tend towards agnosticism and verification by fact only), and it's fascinating for me to follow the developments of the race. it keeps me engaged and dispassionate at the same time... so i await saturday like a marylander awaits the preakness stakes