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!@#$%! · 03.24.2025, 06:33 AM

after a couple of rereads, i thought there has been an "interesting" development since mearsheimer published that paper. i'm not talking about trump's reelection. the nationalist mantle could have been taken by someone else (although likely not as successfully)

the "interesting" part is based on the mearsheimer prediction of the rise of two realist bounded orders after the fall of the unipolar ideological order. particularly, he said that in the future europe should fold into the us-led order (as it did during the cold war). he also says explicitly that an ideological order is only possible in a unipolar world. the entire paper is about the failure of an ideological order as the world became multipolar!

but here is the fly in the ointment: the strange jd vance lecture to the europeans about accepting their extremist ideologues seems in fact an overture to herald a new ideological order within the us bound order. except the ideology is nationalistic, not liberal as before. (it could be argued however that the defense of "free speech" is actually a return to classical liberalism rather than a coddling of illiberal ideologies).

but no, really. any ideological angle is a dangerous spot for the usa. we already failed once at this! and by pushing an ideology instead of returning to the realist parameters of the cold war, we risk pushing europe into the hands of china, which operates in more agnostic ways internationally, as mearsheimer points out. then europe would be able to sell advanced technology to china to compete against the us-bound order!

this here is the danger that the 2019 paper did not forecast for 'merica. the europeans are correct in feeling riled up by vance's gestures. and if the liberal order alienated hungary, what liberal democraxies would be alienated instead by a possible j.d. vance presidency? i dont even want to think about it...

(we have already alienated canadians if you listen to carney's latest speech... maybe this is just electoral posturing as howard lutnick claims)

trump is a businessman, he thinks transactionally, it is possible to deal with him in those terms. but vance is a writer... a less pragmatic and more ideological profession. hence, more dangerous

anyway, the ball is rolling and rolling and rolling, and i am awake all night now trying to see where it's going so i can keep from getting knocked by it. thanks, internet friends!

--

eta: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Ranking enjoy it while you have it

03.24.2025, 06:33 AM	#1550
!@#$%! invito al cielo Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: mars attacks Posts: 42,712	after a couple of rereads, i thought there has been an "interesting" development since mearsheimer published that paper. i'm not talking about trump's reelection. the nationalist mantle could have been taken by someone else (although likely not as successfully) the "interesting" part is based on the mearsheimer prediction of the rise of two realist bounded orders after the fall of the unipolar ideological order. particularly, he said that in the future europe should fold into the us-led order (as it did during the cold war). he also says explicitly that an ideological order is only possible in a unipolar world. the entire paper is about the failure of an ideological order as the world became multipolar! but here is the fly in the ointment: the strange jd vance lecture to the europeans about accepting their extremist ideologues seems in fact an overture to herald a new ideological order within the us bound order. except the ideology is nationalistic, not liberal as before. (it could be argued however that the defense of "free speech" is actually a return to classical liberalism rather than a coddling of illiberal ideologies). but no, really. any ideological angle is a dangerous spot for the usa. we already failed once at this! and by pushing an ideology instead of returning to the realist parameters of the cold war, we risk pushing europe into the hands of china, which operates in more agnostic ways internationally, as mearsheimer points out. then europe would be able to sell advanced technology to china to compete against the us-bound order! this here is the danger that the 2019 paper did not forecast for 'merica. the europeans are correct in feeling riled up by vance's gestures. and if the liberal order alienated hungary, what liberal democraxies would be alienated instead by a possible j.d. vance presidency? i dont even want to think about it... (we have already alienated canadians if you listen to carney's latest speech... maybe this is just electoral posturing as howard lutnick claims) trump is a businessman, he thinks transactionally, it is possible to deal with him in those terms. but vance is a writer... a less pragmatic and more ideological profession. hence, more dangerous anyway, the ball is rolling and rolling and rolling, and i am awake all night now trying to see where it's going so i can keep from getting knocked by it. thanks, internet friends! -- eta: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Ranking enjoy it while you have it
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