[The Soup Nazi]

From Fareed Zakaria's Global Briefing:

How to Turn the Economy On and Off

When it comes to Covid-19 economics, the relevant question isn’t whether to keep a lockdown in place or reopen in full, Zachary Karabell writes in Politico Magazine. Rather, it’s how to modulate business activity with more nuanced measures as the virus comes back in waves—how to turn the economy on and off sustainably, rather than stopping it wholesale in ways that make restarting difficult.

A few proposals have surfaced. "In Europe, a group of researchers spread over nine countries modeled multiple scenarios for how to confront a future surge,” Karabell notes. “The most effective strategy, according to their models, would be to alternate 50-day strict lockdowns followed by 30 days of opening, followed by more lockdowns as need be"—a strategy that might "reduce the risk of social breakdown" by giving everyone some certainty and a periodic break.

A group in Tel Aviv suggests having people “work in two-week cycles of four-day workweeks, followed by 10 days of voluntary quarantine. Schools would follow a similar pattern,” Karabell writes. “The logic is that even if people contracted the disease in that two-week period, the subsequent 10-day quarantine would reduce the infection rate in the larger society to below 1, which would in turn prevent wide-scale outbreaks.” Former Mitt Romney health-policy adviser Avik Roy has advocated letting Covid-19’s age distribution guide us; his proposal includes reopening K-12 schools, lifting stay-at-home orders for all but the elderly, and prioritizing testing in nursing homes.

Regardless of whose plan is best, Karabell’s point is that this is the discussion to be having. As Roy wrote in an April Wall Street Journal op-ed (from which Karabell quotes), “Instead of thinking up creative ways to force people to stay home, we should think hard every day about how to bring more people back to work.”