[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by The Soup Nazi

From Zakaria's newsletter:

i do remember uncle joe saying firmly in some recentish interview (2nd quarter maybe? ) THERE WILL BE NO RECESSION.

i mean everyone saw a recession coming for a long time but he said no.

independent of what he said, the pent-up demand has kept things going, and there has been more stimulus at some local levels. plus wages have risen.

at the same time, the loosening of supply has a disinflationary effect. more money in the economy is only inflationary when supply can't match. otherwise no problem.

i've seen consumer prices fall, for sure. not fall to cheap, just fall back to "normal" (if there is such a thing).

my worry with this situation is that the wall street consensus (just saw it on bloomberg last week) is that for them there "must" be a recession and unemployment in order to bring inflation down. their ideology does not give a fuck. their first reflex is tamping down the wage-price spiral, workers be damned, like cattle to the slaughter. fucking alix steel talking tough like she's not just a journalist.

the progressives on the other hand will only accept full employment with high wages, inflation be damned... in their dreamworld with no tradeoffs.

but a soft landing can be accomplished. it is very fucking hard though. but the powell fed seems to have employment foremost in their agenda, unlike tough-talking journalists.

last year(?) when lizzie warren tried to scold powell for raising rates, powell shut her up swiftly by reminding her of the consequences of runaway inflation for all. eta: found it: https://youtu.be/hrJj8sydGFU

the fed could have raised rates more aggressively, and they still will probably keep raising rates, but they are being extremely careful to do so, and their more recent pause was telling.

here's hoping for a soft landing and another 4 years of democrats in power. they are not perfect, but fuck, the alternative is a true nightmare.