[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by MisterTrick

the more I watch I am more convinced that Warren is not only the best person on that stage but also kinda needs to be the nominee

I really think there is such an echo chamber around Sanders that people aren't seeing the bigger picture with the Senate and House and I am getting such Corbyn vibes off that prospect that it has literally scares me to death and it should everyone else

i was scared before, but results so far seem to show he’s got more support than it was assumed. no?

there are 2 theories right now about how to win the election:

1) the moderates want to win the independents and malcontent republicans

2) bernie wants to mobilize the sleepers and fire up the base

honestly i can see both arguments as valid

[eta: warren wants to win them all with “progressive ideas are popular”]

bernie’s opponents landed some blows today and seemed to join a chorus, so we’ll see what happens as things progress.

a question for you cuz im curious: if warren were to drop out (i don’t think she will any time soon, but just concede me the hypothetical) who would be your preferred candidate?

[!@#$%!]

ps- commercials against m4a and *a public option* have been popping up in my cbs stream

and they use a token brown lady with a kid to speak against it

wtf....

“our coverage...”

hmmmffff....

ps: it’s big business: https://americashealthcarefuture.org/about-us/
bastards...

[MisterTrick]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

a question for you cuz im curious: if warren were to drop out (i don’t think she will any time soon, but just concede me the hypothetical) who would be your preferred candidate?

in all honestly I am unsure, maybe Biden, I will say it ain't Sanders though, and it is not for his policy positions

I fear something so existential about him as the nominee, two combustable forces with zealot fanbases...it could get very violent

I said it in private, I fear so much that I have to consider all my options, problem is that I am homeless, was denied SSI (still waiting on if I qualify for SSDI, if I don't then this system is a crock of shit) and all I really have is my car

It's hard to quantify for people who read at a distance the affect the last several years has done, Hatred can kill, it tears at the soul, can turn people you love into monsters

[Bytor Peltor]

Originally Posted by Robert Schunk

Thank you! I'll have you know that I took my birthday celebratory trip to NYC and enjoyed a Manhattan in the Trump Bar in Trump Tower on 5th Avenue!

I’m sure that was one sweet tasting elixir!

Originally Posted by Robert Schunk

And, concerning the election of 2020, I can only recall the tremendous joy I felt while watching the results of the 2016 election on the television screens at Twin Rivers Casino in Lincoln, Rhode Island, and hope for more of the same:

Were the people in the casino elated or in shock?

I was home in bed next to my wife, she was crashed and I had the TV on mute with closed caption on, my ear phones on listening to news radio and scrolling twitter......it was an implosion for the ages!

From the national media to so many I knew on twitter, it was a complete meltdown......how sweet it was!

 

South Carolina Recap

Joe had a soso night......might even WIN SC, but he’s just a frayed knot after SuperTuesday!!!

BootyJudge has political potential, he’s just 10-12 years too soon!!! (......until then, maybe he can use that time to become gay enough for guest’s approval)?

All the debaters could use some Ted Cruz debate training!

Warren is still a NON factor!

Bloomberg is still TRUMPS biggest threat because he isn't Bernie!!!

Once Steyr drops out, Bloomberg will nab him for VP!

[Derek]

Originally Posted by MisterTrick

in all honestly I am unsure, maybe Biden, I will say it ain't Sanders though, and it is not for his policy positions

I fear something so existential about him as the nominee, two combustable forces with zealot fanbases...it could get very violent

I said it in private, I fear so much that I have to consider all my options, problem is that I am homeless, was denied SSI (still waiting on if I qualify for SSDI, if I don't then this system is a crock of shit) and all I really have is my car

It's hard to quantify for people who read at a distance the affect the last several years has done, Hatred can kill, it tears at the soul, can turn people you love into monsters

"I'm homeless and was denied SSI but I will never vote for the one person who will actually do something about it because of some vague unfounded existential fear"

Also, the means testing that got you rejected from SSI is basic policy for most of the other candidates. Bernie is not interested in means testing people from getting help. Your life will improve under him, stop stoking this fantasy "very violent fanbase" nonsense.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Derek

Your life will improve under him, stop stoking this fantasy "very violent fanbase" nonsense.

ok but did you notice your hard sell methods here? i mean, this is precisely the sort of thing that backfires with people who have doubts about something: a tone-deaf overeager promoter trying to give them orders.

there are many things to say in favor of sanders, and yes mr. trick knows he would be better off if bernie’s policies were somehow successfully implemented, but the way you’re telling him this here actually feeds into his stress and confirms his fears.

you really can’t see it?

eta: see if this clarifies https://timberry.bplans.com/business-use-of-hard-sell/

[Derek]

No cause it's a messageboard I've posted on for 13 years and can express myself how I want. Realistically what I'm saying here isn't going to change anything but I still join in on the shitshow. Not delusional enough to think I'm gonna change everyone's minds if only I was a bit more civil.

[Derek]

Not to mention that when I'm very civil and calmly explaining my points, things get cherrypicked or read in bad faith anyway. So really all you guys want me to do is shut up. Much like what the democratic establishment and msm wants Bernie and his supporters to do lol.

[Derek]

But yes tell me how I'm fearmongering when I'm replying to someone stoking irrational and ridiculous "the violent Bernie Bros and the violent MAGAs will cause carnage on the streets!" hogwash. Next I'll be told that Bernie will execute people in Central Park. No wait, a huge news network already said that.

[MisterTrick]

Well I came to this board 18 tears ago, what you want a medal for being an insufferable twat that you hide behind a board on an Internet forum just saying what you want cause you think there are no consequences just cause you posted so much?

Violence is already here buddy, and I should know better than most those consequences

[Derek]

It is and it's not coming from the left. What consequences could I possibly suffer from what I'm saying besides people like you huffing and hawing hopelessly? But yes, gimme a medal. I'm a millennial and need my participation trophy!

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Derek

No cause it's a messageboard I've posted on for 13 years and can express myself how I want. Realistically what I'm saying here isn't going to change anything but I still join in on the shitshow.

sure you can express yourself how you want but don’t expect for things to go your way if you don’t consider your audience ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Originally Posted by Derek

Not delusional enough to think I'm gonna change everyone's minds if only I was a bit more civil.

i think you’re wrong in that. i mean at least with reasonable people, and with people who are so close to your positions it would be easier to bring them over to your side than to push them away.

and it’s not about civility as empty form, but about listening to what other people are telling you before you pitch to them.

if you choose to double down on the hard sell tactics that’s your “free expression” choice, but please realize that it affects our election.

[Derek]

How much does it really affect the election? Have any of you changed who you're voting for based on what I've said, whether positive or negative? How many people even still read this board?

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by Derek

How much does it really affect the election? Have any of you changed who you're voting for based on what I've said, whether positive or negative? How many people even still read this board?

it’s a case of “as above, so below” kinda. or “all politics is local”

we have big things happening out there but we talk about them in small conversations.

i actually of course listen to points you make and i go look them up on my own. the fact that you make those points is important for the people who read this thread. of course you’re not the only source, but the people who hang out here see this, then go repeat elsewhere.

as i’ve said in this thread before, i have been losing my fear of bernie lately. and i can see the arguments about electability as more speculation based than fact based, given his results.

so if the points you make count, HOW you make those points also counts. some people can look past the abrasion, some people are turned off by it.

the problem is one of mathematics like the link i posted you explained. how many people you win vs how many people you lose. but let me quote his midway conclusion:

“ I don't think this kind of hard sell is good business. I don't think hard sell is okay even when we're selling something good for people. It leaves an ugly sticky negative residue. Sort of like the ring in the tub, after we played football, that my mom used to hate. You could also call it a bad aftertaste.”

bernie himself (and i have posted you quotes) has come out against personal attacks carried out on his behalf. and while your posts for mr trick aren’t actual personal attacks, they’re awful salesmanship, and i see them backfiring and leaving the filthy residue. this of course is a repetition of what happens elsewhere on the internet, and will continue to repeat from here.

--

now on the purely positive side of this thread here kuhb has been talking about mmt, and he’s got me reading stuff, and little epiphanies occur. like you probably know, i’m interested in economics, and will often discuss policies in those terms. he also recommended me andrew hill’s “point of departure” some time ago and wow. but anyway it’s great to have a nice conversation with people about ideas, and that’s what over the years has kept me around this board. even if things degenerate on a regular basis because this is the fucking internet after all. but yes. good things can happen.

ok.

[!@#$%!]

sen. jim clyburn endorsed uncle joe today

bernie refused to attend aipac he said because “it accepts bigots,

2 polls from today show biden +8 to +18 in south carolina. bloomberg doesn’t figure. bernie 2nd in one poll, steyer 2nd in another.

other polls: sanders ahead in california +18, virginia +9, colorado +14, washington +6. behind him mostly bloomberg, sometimes biden, but in colorado warren appears 2nd, progressives add up to 54% while in washington (state) moderates show more votes.

it looks to me like the race is generally shaping to be bernie vs. bloomberg, but there’s much ground to cover ahead so obviously hard to predict.

[The Soup Nazi]

 

The Musician Primary

Non-spoiler alert: it's a landslide. This is the real spoiler alert (well, to a degree): for some reason, John Cougar's brain committed suicide and believes "Mike Bloomberg will fight for Small Town America".

[Bytor Peltor]

 

[!@#$%!]

been reading some articles on the frontrunner

1. why bernie sanders won the [north carolina] debate
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-ho...won-the-debate

2. democrats are dealing with a generational divide [paywall, but try clearing your cookies]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...470_story.html

--
eta:

summary on 1. is that other candidates are trying to say why they're electable while bernie sticks to issues that matter. personally i don't know that he "won" that debate, but the difference in his sales pitch is obvious.

summary on 2. article is based on the premise that when young people think of socialism they think "denmark". and when old people think of socialism they think "soviet union." therefore the sanders candidacy hinges mathematically on getting young people out to vote in massive numbers to overcome boomer bias in turning away from democrats. author says he hasn't seen any huge under-35 mobilization so far. however, i haven't seen from previous results that bernard's candidance is supported by utes only.

 

[MisterTrick]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

article is based on the premise that when young people think of socialism they think "denmark". and when old people think of socialism they think "soviet union." therefore the sanders candidacy hinges mathematically on getting young people out to vote in massive numbers to overcome boomer bias in turning away from democrats. author says he hasn't seen any huge under-35 mobilization so far. however, i haven't seen from previous results that bernard's candidance is supported by utes only.

this is such the thing that most people never think about

the older voters ALWAYS turn out, the youth are fickle as hell and rarely show in the numbers that represent their demographic and the evidence seems to show that Sanders is bringing them out in numbers that would codify the polling numbers that support him

the early contests have not shown the level of youth turnout that one would expect if Sanders truly was bringing them out, and especially not to the level Obama did in 2008

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by MisterTrick

this is such the thing that most people never think about

the older voters ALWAYS turn out, the youth are fickle as hell and rarely show in the numbers that represent their demographic and the evidence seems to show that Sanders is bringing them out in numbers that would codify the polling numbers that support him

the early contests have not shown the level of youth turnout that one would expect if Sanders truly was bringing them out, and especially not to the level Obama did in 2008

maybe, yeah. i have not looked at those specific stats.

but i looked at some nevada entrance poll results and sanders showed a broad coalition across demographics, which others lacked.

obama at this point in 2008 had won iowa but had lost both new hampshire and nevada. of course he was more or less an unknown back then, while bernie is by now pretty famous.

i'd like to see how sanders fares in south carolina, where biden appears to be the shoo-in, and what percentage of the black vote he ends up getting, plus a breakdown of age groups. the key to the whole election for democrats is supposed to be old black women, so that vote should be an interesting bit of data to look for. i'm sure it will be dissected by statisticians and spun by everyone come sunday.

anyway, maybe i'm crazy to look at this contest with such detachment, but i really don't know what's going to happen (i was trained in science, therefore i tend towards agnosticism and verification by fact only), and it's fascinating for me to follow the developments of the race. it keeps me engaged and dispassionate at the same time... so i await saturday like a marylander awaits the preakness stakes