[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

all the above except competent

so the pound dropping to $1.13 under his tenure then?

(for reference, current rate is circa $1.25, and remain would send you up to $1.50)

(1.13 means crashing out with no deal)

my take is:
a cunning competent pm would get you a deal from europe ($1.35 or thereabouts)
a narcissistic incompetent would crash you out and call it a win while the economy burns

[demonrail666]

You may well be right about the economic cost of no deal but I don't see a deal coming off now either, so chances are it'll be a stalemate leading to a general election which I can see Corbyn winning, and that would almost certainly have a very negative impact on the £, even if it resulted in the UK remaining.

Talking neutrally (which I'm obviously not) I'd say the safest economic option is to remain in the EU with a moderate conservative government in parliament, but I think neither brexiteers or those who support a Corbyn government are primarily motivated by economic performance. I think both camps are prepared to take a hit in that regard.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

You may well be right about the economic cost of no deal but I don't see a deal coming off now either, so chances are it'll be a stalemate leading to a general election which I can see Corbyn winning, and that would almost certainly have a very negative impact on the £, even if it resulted in the UK remaining.

ah, yeah, fuck... a marxist pm lololol

what could trigger the general election? a no-confidence vote for boris?

any other thing? when does the term expire anyway? this government was formed in 2017 yeah? could it go on to 2022? so complicated..

[choc e-Claire]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

any other thing? when does the term expire anyway? this government was formed in 2017 yeah? so complicated..

I may be wrong here (Australia is just bootleg UK for political purposes), but I think there's no hard limit and the Queen can dissolve it at any time (on the advice of the Prime Minister). I think there's laws saying it has to be within five years though.

[demonrail666]

A no confidence vote would be most likely.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by choc e-Claire

I may be wrong here (Australia is just bootleg UK for political purposes), but I think there's no hard limit and the Queen can dissolve it at any time (on the advice of the Prime Minister). I think there's laws saying it has to be within five years though.

yeah i found the wikipedia that sez the hard limit is 5years after all

Originally Posted by demonrail666

A no confidence vote would be most likely.

but otherwise, could boris keep going till 2022?

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by choc e-Claire

I may be wrong here (Australia is just bootleg UK for political purposes), but I think there's no hard limit and the Queen can dissolve it at any time (on the advice of the Prime Minister). I think there's laws saying it has to be within five years though.

Yeah, although the Queen would never dissolve parliament without 1st being asked to do-so by parliament itself, even though in principle she could.

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

yeah i found the wikipedia that sez the hard limit is 5years after all



but otherwise, could boris keep going till 2022?

In theory yes. Even if he failed to deliver Brexit, if he somehow survived a vote of no confidence, he could run the full term.

[choc e-Claire]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

Yeah, although the Queen would never dissolve parliament without 1st being asked to do-so by parliament itself, even though in principle she could.

She's in her 90s now; how good would it be if, a week before she died, she did something insane just for shits and giggles?

"Your Majesty, we request you give Royal Assent to this law."
"No."
"Your Majesty, it's decades and decades of convention..."
"We say 'YOLO'."

[demonrail666]

Originally Posted by !@#$%!

ah, yeah, fuck... a marxist pm lololol

what could trigger the general election? a no-confidence vote for boris?

any other thing? when does the term expire anyway? this government was formed in 2017 yeah? could it go on to 2022? so complicated..

As I've said, I think both Brexiteers and those wanting a Corbyn government both accept (if only privately) that the country would take a hit if either side came to power. But it does make me laugh when corbyn supporters go on about how Brexit would fuck the country's economy when most economic analysts I've read has said that yes, business fears Brexit but it fears a Corbyn government even more.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by choc e-Claire

She's in her 90s now; how good would it be if, a week before she died, she did something insane just for shits and giggles?

"Your Majesty, we request you give Royal Assent to this law."
"No."
"Your Majesty, it's decades and decades of convention..."
"We say 'YOLO'."

haaahaaahaaaaaa

[demonrail666]

Here's the worst case scenario from an economic standpoint: Boris gets no-deal through by suspending parliament. There's a revolt from both parties, a general election is called, Corbyn wins so we have him AND no deal.

 

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

Here's the worst case scenario from an economic standpoint: Boris gets no-deal through by suspending parliament. There's a revolt from both parties, a general election is called, Corbyn wins so we have him AND no deal.

 

pound crashes to $.90 maybe

you know soros made megabillions by shorting the pound, yes?

[demonrail666]

So it's (down to) Boris (or Jeremy Hunt).

[!@#$%!]

now mixed signals from europe on further delay extension (slovakia, ireland) but consensus seems unanimous on unchanging terms.

[demonrail666]

As far as I know any further extension would require unanimous agreement from the other EU nations, so I can't see it.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

As far as I know any further extension would require unanimous agreement from the other EU nations, so I can't see it.

so what do you think boris could effectively accomplish?

threaten to walk away, trigger a no-confidence, end up with labor + revocation?

[demonrail666]

I think a gen election is inevitable and the Tories are only interested in selecting a leader they think has the best chance against Corbyn. But until Corbyn comes off the fence, I see Labour continuing to haemorrhage votes to both the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party.

[!@#$%!]

Originally Posted by demonrail666

I think a gen election is inevitable and the Tories are only interested in selecting a leader they think has the best chance against Corbyn. But until Corbyn comes off the fence, I see Labour continuing to haemorrhage votes to both the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party.

is there a viable way to boot out corbyn or is he lodged there like a cyst?

[demonrail666]

He has a devoted following within the party membership but I wonder if even that's starting to grow impatient with him over this. But he's been deeply divisive from the start, both within his party and amongst voters. I'd say he has roughly the same strengths and weaknesses as Bernie Sanders has in the US.